Stock markets are balancing between economic signals. Paul Krugman says that the USA and Europe have good chances to finish crisis. Today in the spotlight is the decision of European Central Bank on an interest rate.
The Asian Pacific region today at the beginning of trading session shows positive dynamics – indicator of Japan adds 1,3%, Nikkei is 225, other markets of Asia which are opened – growing on the average on a 0,5%, basically due to favorable yesterday’s trading session in the USA and good macroeconomic signals from America.
The American stock market grew by 0,4% on an index S&P500 and was closed on a level of 1450 points. Two positive signals are data on employment from ADP which appeared better than expectations and data on the ASM indicator in the non-productive sphere – also better than experts expected. The future contract on S&P500 index now also is in a green zone, it adds about 0,4%. Minor macro-signals also didn’t pump up yesterday – demand for mortgage lending is at a maximum level in 3 last years in the USA, it naturally also promotes revival in the real estate market. At least, those companies which are engaged in this market and mortgage lending were yesterday one of the best during trading session in the USA.
However there are enough pessimists in the market and they discuss more long-term idea which will start to influence markets shortly – it is certainly the fiscal rock which threatens America with new recession. In general the ratio of positive and negative signals, now about 1:3, meaning 1 signal positive – 3 signals negative, thus it is natural if there is a positive signal – many speculators start to disperse the market. Though, in principle, it moves within diapason which it entered at the beginning of September.
One or two changes towards one or other side are not a tendency to understand that now occurs in the world, recession or economic growth. To understand anything, it is necessary that this tendency last at least 3-4 months.
The future contracts on oil are now correcting, and grow for 0,2% after yesterday’s fall almost for 3%.
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