Election uncertainty tempers optimism



The USD continues to climb against all currencies prior to a presidential election, too, close to call. The Euro is once again under strong downward pressure with Greece back in focus after what is described as a “disastrous” 2013-budget. Both deficit and debt targets seem to overshoot due to a deeper than forecast Greek recession.
Greek and Euro zone policy makers’ effort to shape a deal to prevent the collapse of the Greece’s rescue packages, hang on the cliff. There remains room for nasty surprises and potentially a failure of the intended bailout. This has brought the possibility for a Greek exit from the Euro zone back on the agenda. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2831. USD is also stronger against JPY trading at 80,42.
Last week saw a string of encouraging data releases from the US culminating in Friday’s robust non-farm payrolls report on 171 000 new jobs created in October. The unemployment rate was up from 7.8 to 7,9 percent indicating a slow, but sustained economic recovery.
Uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s US presidential election along with worries about the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and spending cuts facing the United States, limited the feel good factor of investors. With the outcome of the elections hanging on the edge, markets are left concerned whether the newly elected president will have the political capability to deal with the fiscal cliff. Uncertainties related to automatic fiscal tightening may undermine the recent economic rebound. This does not bode well for general risk appetite.
Wall Street’s initial positive reaction to the positive labor figures quickly faded and gold and industrial metal prices sank with the dollar climbing sharply.
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