Euro outperforms on increased risk appetite

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The Euro reached multi-months high against dollar and Japanese yen on Wednesday extending recent gains. Signs of progress in the US fiscal talks bolstered demand for riskier assets. Euro/USD is trading at 1.324655. USD/JPY stands at 84,282. The Scandinavian currencies, Norwegian, Swedish and Danish krones have gained substantially against the dollar over last week.

The US House of Representatives Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, said yesterday that he expected a vote on a Republican offer to avert the “fiscal cliff” on Thursday. Republicans plan a vote on a bill to raise taxes on income above USD 1 million while extending low rates on other tax payers. The White House has proposed a compromise USD 400 000 threshold. Cantor said he expected to have enough votes to pass the measure.

In spite of the big distance between the two parties’ stock markets all over the world rose on expectations of a compromise. Gains in Asia this morning came after Wall Street S&P 500 index for the biggest 500 companies rose more than one percent completing the best two-day rally in a month. The US market is higher driven by the fact that the parties now at least are engaged in constructive negotiations striving to find a middle ground.

Tokyo’s Nikkei rose 1,3 percent topping 10 000 points for the first time since April as Bank of Japan (BOJ)started their two day meeting. BOJ is expected to take measures for monetary easing and a more expansionistic fiscal policy. The Yen continues to fall against most currencies. Australian shares rose to a 17-month high led by miners and banks. Australian dollar, however, barely budged in part because currency speculators were already holding record long positions.

Boosted by optimism on a US budget compromise analysts predict that EURO/USD might reach the 1.33 level year-end targets. Oil prices are steady with Brent crude trading at 108,88 on better economic outlook. Copper is flat in the morning after falling Tuesday. Both Gold and silver fell rather dramatically yesterday slowly recovering somewhat this morning. Gold fell from a 1705 peak down to a 1660 bottom. It is now trading at 1670.

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