28 January 2013: Euro/USD bounces to 11 months high

EURO/USD bounced to its highest level in 11 months amidst mounting signs of recovering economic confidence in the Euro zone. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3459 after hitting 1.2480 on Friday. The Euro is also gaining ground against the Japanese Yen which continues to fall also against the USD on expectations on active monetary easing. The strength of the Euro is supported by a more positive business sentiment in Germany and by European banks actively paying back credits given by the European Central Bank (ECB) since 2011.

USD/Yen fell to 91,26 yen to a dollar on Friday which is the lowest level seen since June 2010. Since last November Yen has fallen 13% against the USD and a record 17% versus Euro. The Japanese Nikkei stock index reach new record levels while the South Korean Kospi is falling back mainly due to a stronger Won. Over the last days there has been growing dissatisfaction with the strong fall in the Yen both from South Korea and China and from the Russian and German central banks.

Historically speaking Yen is still relatively strong. During the early 1990’ies USD/Yen was trading at 158 and apart from a brief period in 1995 it has traded below 90 yen a dollar only since the middle of 2010. Stocks in Asia are except for South Korea still up on better US economic news on jobless rate, manufacturing, better housing and retail spending. Chinese data continue to confirm that the Chinese economy is turning around.

The British Pound (GPB) has fallen below the technical resistance level at 1,58 against the dollar trading at 1.5754. Data before the weekend showed that the UK economy shrank more severely than expected in the fourth quarter shrinking with 0,3% rising fear of a third dip recession. The market expectation was a decrease of 0,1% in the gross domestic product, GSDP. The number was particularly disappointing taken into consideration the robust 0,9% growth in the third quarter. It now seems that this strong growth was entirely down to the boost given by the London Olympics.

The short term prospect for GBP is negative.

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